Luc MICHEL, Administrator-General of EODE /
with AFP – Le Monde – AP – Stratfor / 25 February 2012 /
for EODE – Think Tank / Eurasian Observatory for Democracy & Elections (Brussels – Paris – Kishinev – Yaounde)
Yemen / Presidential Election: Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi elected to 99.8% of the vote …
Yet one of these virtual elections organized by the West and its allies. But the same people criticise endless the Russian led Democracy…
The only presidential candidate of Yemen on Tuesday, the one of the United States and NATO, of its Arab fundamentalist allies of Qatar and Saudi Arabia, Vice President Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi, from the wing of the Yemeni regime close to the Americans, was elected to 99.8% of the vote, announced Friday the national electoral commission in Sana’a. According to final results, 6,635,192 electors on 10,243,364 took part in the ballot, representing a turnout of 66%. Of the valid votes, 99.8% went to Mr. Hadi, the source said.
Mr Hadi was the only candidate to succeed Ali Abdullah Saleh as part of a transition agreement developed by the Gulf monarchies, which Qatar was the prime contractor.
The new president "will be sworn in before Parliament Saturday, February 25 and Monday, February 27 will be invested at a ceremony at the presidential palace in which Ali Abdullah Saleh will officially give him the power," said the electoral commission in a brief statement. Thursday, the Committee indicated that it continued to collect the election results and explained the delay by logistical difficulties and the fact that in the South, voting was disrupted by autonomists.
An "election", with a single candidate, which is boycotted in the South and not organized in the North, in the province of Saada, which proclaimed its autonomy, and in cities controlled by Al-Qaeda, is obviously a virtual election. Especially since it is supposed to "initiate a process of reconciliation" (sic). "In Southern Yemen, the separatist movement, however, increased violence, killing several people and the closure of many polling stations. The role of security services in this escalation was not clearly established. In the north, the call for a boycott launched by a rebel group has been followed, "says the very pro-Western LE MONDE.
Wednesday, a relative of Mr. Saleh, the deputy information minister Janadi Abdo, was assured that the outgoing president, who went to the U.S.A. for medical care, would return to Sanaa for the inauguration of his successor. The election of Mr. Hadi for a transitional period of two years made Yemen the first Arab country where an uprising led to a solution called "negotiated". This uprising was organized and supported precisely by Qatar, with the discreet support of the West.
After Egypt and Libya, it is a new regime (dying) stemming from the Arab Nationalism (Nasserian type) that is replaced by the political system advocated by the United States as part of their project called the "Greater Middle East": Association of pro-Western military (locking the system) and a parliament under control open to radical Islamists. The goal is to separate the parliamentarian wing of the Islamists (Muslim Brotherhood, Salafists, etc.) from its jihadist radical base (linked to Al Qaeda or AQIM, its North African wing).
This virtual election does not solve anything in a country deeply divided between Arab Nationalists (supporters of the incumbent president who surrendered – in exchange for immunity and the maintenance of his supporters in the army and state apparatus – and its "General People’s Congress," the former ruling party), fundamentalists backed by Qatar and the United States (those of the Islamist party Al-Islah, hegemonic within the opposition), and jihadists of Al Qaeda (which control several cities and lead a powerful radical Islamist insurgency). "This step creates a sense of optimism among various local and international (nota: hear Westerners). It ends six months of a slow disintegration of the political power that has raised fears that the country switches back into civil war. But nothing is settled yet and the task facing Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi is titanic. During the two year period of his transitional term, the man has to maneuver skillfully to meet the many challenges that are imposed on this country plagued by years of civil war and an explosive socio-economic situation”, comments LE MONDE (Paris ).
But that’s not all because there adds an Islamist insurgency, Shiite this time (and discreetly supported by Tehran). And which proclaimed an autonomous republic in Northern Yemen!
"The presidential election has highlighted the basis of the two main Yemeni secessionist movements, which have called for a boycott. In the North, some 150 km from the capital Sanaa, the Shiite rebellion of the Huthi movement, entered a cycle of violence against the state since 2004 "and which" took the challenge to install a republic in the north, in the province Saada, which is almost a de facto Huthi state”, explains Dominique Thomas (specialist on Yemen and Islamist movements in the Arabian Peninsula at the Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales).
They called for a boycott of the election, denouncing "an imperfect process of transition" and calling for "a federal system and more autonomy". Their recent establishment as a political party could initiate change. Their mobilization strength is large against the frustration of local people and religious revivalism.
But the descent into hell of Yemen does not stop there yet! For the South, where there was the People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen (1970-1990), also wants to regain its autonomy. For once, as in Germany, there were two Yemen, whose PDRY with its capital in Aden, supported by Nasser, Arab Marxist state which had close ties with the USSR (the demise of the USSR was of course followed by the PDRY). Reunification is definitely being made by force in 1994, with a bloody civil war imposed by Saana.
"The Southern Movement, a separatist group, has called for a boycott of Tuesday’s ballot which shall bear the Vice President Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi at the head of the State (…), told AFP. The hard wing of the Southern Movement, led by former Vice President of Yemen Ali Salem Al-Baid, who lives in exile, called on his supporters to prevent the elections, with the risk of causing violence. She called for "civil disobedience" Tuesday in the South, which remained independent until 1990”. "In Aden and surrounding provinces, the Southern Movement has adopted since the 1994 civil war a form of nonviolent action to promote its federalist project. Very divided between ideological movements, it recently entered an active phase, with a popular support, fueled by a genuine social discontent”, comments LE MONDE. "The Southern Movement is now at the crossroads and could move towards a more active militant and militarized, as shown by the attacks against polling stations," explains M. Thomas.
Icing on a Yemeni rotten cake, the South is also a stronghold of Al Qaeda Guerilla, which in Yemen is no longer at the stage of terrorism but that of an insurgency on the Afghan model. "The jihadists are latecomers on the scene of Yemen in 2009. After the restructuring of Saudi and Yemeni branches of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and taking advantage of the decay of the state, they entered an active phase of control of the territory, "says Dominique Thomas. "With a few thousand fighters, they took control of half a dozen cities and dramatically increased their ability to mobilize in the south and the east of the country and north of Sanaa. Their social arm, the Ansar al-Sharia, in these cities imposes Islamic law”, comments LE MONDE.
The Yemeni state is unable to regain control of these areas, including using tribal militias. "It is possible that the military solution is not suitable, says Mr. Thomas, while the dialogue initiated by some tribes with Ansar Al-Sharia to liberate the city of Radah for example has paid off. The state could then negotiate the liberation of the cities and the return of displaced populations against the release of jihadist fighters, a shared management of civil affairs and stricter enforcement of Sharia. "
The current Vice-President of Yemen, Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi, who accedes to the presidency tomorrow, is a career military with no popular or tribal base, and wholly dependent on his U.S. and Qatari outside supports, but he was able to reveal himself as a man of consensus. Aged 57, discreet, he asserted himself during the four-month absence of President Ali Abdullah Saleh, seriously wounded in an attack in June in the rampant civil war that strikes Yemen. He has honed his image as enjoying the respect of all political actors, opposition included.
The man is indeed "held" by his Marxist past that he had to make forget. Within the army, he was able to move up in the People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen (1970-1990), only Marxist Arab state that had close ties with the USSR. Appointed Defense minister in 1994 after reunification, then he will assist with a stateless soul president Saleh resigning today.
"His image is already in all the streets of Yemen since February 15. Day when former President Ali Abdullah Saleh asked to remove his portraits and put in place those of Vice President Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi, sole candidate for the early presidential election of February 21. An election-plebiscite in which Yemenis participated in number, on Tuesday. The process is however in accordance with the agreement to end the crisis proposed by the Gulf countries and signed by all parties involved in the uprising. After the departure of former President Saleh, the coming to power of Mr. Hadi is a new stage of the political transition process”, comments LE MONDE (Paris).
Note that the term "transition process" is a complex concept which envisages the transformation of the socialist regimes in Western "market democracy". Initially in the post-Soviet Eastern Europe, today the term is given to the agenda, in the Middle East.
According to the envoy of U.S. President Obama, John Brennan, who met him on Saturday, Mansour Hadi has committed to continue the fight against Al Qaeda and "destroy" the extremist network …


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